Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
