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Within the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.