A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
